Dividend Increase | Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)

Getting a pay raise while sitting on the couch?  Sign me up!  Thanks Bank of Nova Scotia for another dividend increase!

There's an old Chinese proverb that says "the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the next best time is now".  The reason for this is that it takes time for a tree to grow and prosper and for you to start reaping its benefits.  Dividend growth investing is much the same way.  It takes consistent saving and investing as well as time and patience to let the power of dividend growth take hold.

That's why one of my favorite things is when one of the companies I own decides to pay out more in dividends.  You mean I get a pay raise just for owning a small piece of a company?  Not going and doing R&D for new products or technology.  Not selling any products.  Not managing any employees or inventory.  Not making sales calls.  All I had to do was have the foresight to invest some of my savings in excellent companies.  

On November 30th the Board of Directors at Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) approved an increase in the quarterly dividend payment.  The dividend was increased from $0.90 CAD to $1.00 CAD which is a n excellent 11.1% increase.  Bank of Nova Scotia is starting back over with their dividend growth streak after pausing growth during 2020.  Shares currently yield 4.91% based on the new annualized payout.

The new dividend will be payable January 27th to shareholders of record as of January 4th.

Since I own 30.296 shares of Bank of Nova Scotia in my FI Portfolio, this raise increased my forward 12-month dividends by $9.49.  This is the 10th raise that I've received from ScotiaBank since initiating a position in 2015.  Total organic dividend growth over that time is 47%.

A full screen version of this chart can be found here.

While Bank of Nova Scotia is starting back over on their dividend growth streak their history of dividend payments is quite impressive.  According to their investor relations page they've increased dividends in 43 of the last 45 years with the two years of no growth being 2010 and 2021, two of the toughest and craziest years.  

Dating back to 1994 there's been 29 year over year periods with annual dividend growth ranging from 0.0% to 38.4% with an average of 11.2% and a median of 8.4%.

Over that same time there's been 24 rolling 5-year periods with annualized dividend growth ranging from 4.5% to 21.4% with an average of 10.8% and a median of 7.6%.

There's also been 19 rolling 10-year periods with annualized dividend growth ranging from 5.5% to 17.4% with an average and median of 11.0%.

The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year rolling dividend growth rates since 1994 can be found in the following chart.  

A full screen version of this chart can be found here.

For dividend yield theory I consider the fair value range to be the forward dividend yield +/- 10% compared to the 3 year moving average, the under/over value area to be to between 10%-20% deviation from the average and significant over/under value are greater than a 20% deviation from the average.

A full screen version of this chart can be found here.

ScotiaBank's 3-year average forward dividend yield is 5.19% which corresponds to a share price of $60 based on the new annualized payout.  

I consider the fair value range based on dividend yield theory to be the 3-year moving average yield +/- 10%.  That gives a fair value range of $55 - $67 and suggests that shares are trading around fair value.

Another quick and dirty valuation method is the Gordon Growth or Dividend Discount model.  This valuation method is based solely off the expected future dividends as well as your required return.  Based on a 10% discount rate and assuming Bank of Nova Scotia can maintain 5.0% annual dividend growth shares are worth around $66 per share.

A full screen version of this chart can be found here.

The above chart shows the DDM valuation using the 5% growth rate and 10% discount rate in comparison to the share price over time.  The DDM for Bank of Nova Scotia looks a bit odd due to the CAD:USD exchange rate being factored in as well.

  




Wrap Up

This raise increased my forward dividends by $9.49 with zero effort on my part.  That's right, absolutely nothing to contribute to their operations.  Based on my FI Portfolio's current yield of 2.34% this raise is like I invested an extra $406 in capital.  Except that I didn't!  One of the companies I own just decided to send more cash my way. 

That's how you can eventually reach the crossover point where your dividends received exceed your expenses.  That's DIVIDEND GROWTH INVESTING AT WORK!  The beauty of the dividend growth investing strategy is that you build up your dividends through fresh capital investment as well dividend increases from the companies you own.

I've now received 54 raises from the companies in my FI Portfolio increasing my forward-12 month dividends by $672.76.

My FI Portfolio's forward-12 month dividends are $9,103.05  Including my FolioFirst portfolio's forward dividends of $178.24 brings my total taxable accounts dividends to $9,281.29.  My Roth IRA's forward 12-month dividends are $888.08.  My Rollover IRA's forward dividends are $4,019.76.  Across all accounts I can expect to receive $14,189.13 in dividends over the next year.

I've also started compiling dividend data on many of the companies that I own or would like to own.  Bank of Nova Scotia's can be found here which includes the dividend history (as far back as I can find without spending hours hunting it down), rolling dividend growth rates and dividend yield theory.  To see other companies that I've already gathered the data on you can check out the Dividend Companies page.  Check it out and let me know what you think.

Do you own shares of Bank of Nova Scotia?  What about other Canadian businesses?  What do you think of their long term dividend growth potential?  

Please share your thoughts below.